Severe Thunderstorms in Dixie Alley

Today, April 19th, will be another big Sunday of severe storms in south-eastern USA. After last Sunday's tornadoes, which brought havoc to the same region, including the third-widest tornado in history, this is not something needed for the second weekend in a row, especially with many US states on lockdown. 

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook and a look at the potential convective evolution from the NAM model. Credit: SPC/ wxcharts.

The band of high CAPE looks to be fairly narrow, with a stationary warm front lying across central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. But with 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE, 0-6km shear at 50-60kts, as well as 300-400 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, tornadoes appear likely, particularly as the low-level jet ramps up during the late afternoon.

200-300hPa irrotational wind, PV and 400-600hPa ascent (left), with CAPE and 1000-500hPa bulk shear (right). Credit: Alicia M. Bentley.